The phrase free trade hides wildly different paths to industrialization. Countries industrialized under differing combinations of tariffs, domestic policy and access to external markets.
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Protected firms may learn and expand, but barriers can also raise consumer costs and sustain inefficient production. Protection can buy time to learn or simply preserve inefficiency.
Trade policy cannot be assessed apart from technology, institutions, market size and international power. Tariffs alone never explain who developed a competitive industry.
One successful country's playbook is not a universal recipe. A successful later exporter may have developed behind restrictions, without proving the same recipe works everywhere.
What historical comparison comes closest to isolating the economic effect of a particular tariff?